Bitcoin formed a significant low at $80,537 on November 21, 2025, and has since traded sideways to upward in a double three corrective structure under the Elliott Wave framework. Wave (W) ended at $94,172, followed by wave (X) pulling back to $84,398. Wave (Y) is underway, subdividing into a smaller double three: wave W at $94,792, wave X at $89,190, and wave Y as a zigzag ((a))-((b))-((c)). Within ((a)), wave (i) reached $92,392, wave (ii) retraced to $90,016, and wave (iii) hit $97,939. Wave (iv) is expected to correct from the January 12, 2026 low, before wave (v) completes ((a)).
As long as the $89,222 pivot holds, dips should find support in 3, 7, or 11 swings, favoring upside. On Wednesday, Bitcoin traded above $95,000 amid positive sentiment, lifting altcoins like Ethereum and Ripple, which held Tuesday's gains from lower-than-expected US December core inflation. Ripple dipped to $2.15 after rallying to $2.19. Hyperliquid surged above $26.00 with improving on-chain metrics, while Pi Network held above $0.2000 after a 1% bounce.
By Friday, Bitcoin pulled back toward $90,000 after rejection at resistance, driven by fading institutional demand and net outflows from spot ETFs this week.
TD Cowen trimmed its price target for Michael Saylor’s Strategy (Nasdaq: MSTR) to $440 from $500 while maintaining a buy rating, citing near-term pressure from accelerated Bitcoin purchases amid price compression. Analysts Lance Vitanza and Jonnathan Navarrete, from TD Securities' research division, noted in a Wednesday report that Strategy raised roughly $1.25 billion and used nearly all of it to buy more Bitcoin, leaning into the downturn. They linked this to broader shifts in Bitcoin’s institutional market structure, affirming Strategy remains attractive for Bitcoin exposure despite flirting with a zero Bitcoin premium recently.
On Monday, Strategy announced its largest Bitcoin purchase in over five months, acquiring 13,600 Bitcoin in the past week for over $1.2 billion at current prices. The Tysons Corner, Virginia-based firm now holds 687,400 Bitcoin, valued at over $62.8 billion with Bitcoin at $91,415 per CoinGecko. A week ago, when U.S. markets opened, Bitcoin traded around $93,000, highlighting the recent price dip that Strategy aggressively exploited.
Bitcoin's price has tracked net institutional demand over the past year, defined by Bitwise as buying from global exchange-traded products (ETPs) and treasury companies minus new supply. This trend accelerated after Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) purchased $1.25 billion in BTC, coupled with $753 million in net inflows into US spot BTC exchange-traded funds (ETFs). On Wednesday, Bitcoin surged above $97,000 for the first time in three months, extending its post-Consumer Price Index (CPI) gain by 6.7% over the past two days.
The rally triggered $360 million in BTC short liquidations in the past 24 hours—the largest since October 10—per Coinglass data, with the biggest at $34.9 million on the HTX exchange. A 47,244 decrease in BTC holders preceded gains on three occasions over the past two months, according to Santiment. Exchange supply hit a seven-month low of 1.18 million BTC, signaling reduced selloff risk; Santiment noted dropping non-empty wallets as a bullish sign.
Bitcoin traded near $97,100, up 2% in the past 24 hours on Wednesday. By Friday, it fell toward $90,000 amid fading institutional demand and spot ETF outflows.
