Bitcoin formed a significant low at $80,537 on November 21, 2025, and has since traded sideways to upward in a double three corrective structure under the Elliott Wave framework. Wave (W) ended at $94,172, followed by wave (X) pulling back to $84,398. Wave (Y) is underway, subdividing into a smaller double three: wave W at $94,792, wave X at $89,190, and wave Y as a zigzag ((a))-((b))-((c)). Within ((a)), wave (i) reached $92,392, wave (ii) retraced to $90,016, and wave (iii) hit $97,939. Wave (iv) is expected to correct from the January 12, 2026 low, before wave (v) completes ((a)).

As long as the $89,222 pivot holds, dips should find support in 3, 7, or 11 swings, favoring upside. On Wednesday, Bitcoin traded above $95,000 amid positive sentiment, lifting altcoins like Ethereum and Ripple, which held Tuesday's gains from lower-than-expected US December core inflation. Ripple dipped to $2.15 after rallying to $2.19. Hyperliquid surged above $26.00 with improving on-chain metrics, while Pi Network held above $0.2000 after a 1% bounce.

By Friday, Bitcoin pulled back toward $90,000 after rejection at resistance, driven by fading institutional demand and net outflows from spot ETFs this week.

TD Cowen trimmed its price target for Michael Saylor’s Strategy (Nasdaq: MSTR) to $440 from $500 while maintaining a buy rating, citing near-term pressure from accelerated Bitcoin purchases amid price compression. Analysts Lance Vitanza and Jonnathan Navarrete, from TD Securities' research division, noted in a Wednesday report that Strategy raised roughly $1.25 billion and used nearly all of it to buy more Bitcoin, leaning into the downturn. They linked this to broader shifts in Bitcoin’s institutional market structure, affirming Strategy remains attractive for Bitcoin exposure despite flirting with a zero Bitcoin premium recently.

On Monday, Strategy announced its largest Bitcoin purchase in over five months, acquiring 13,600 Bitcoin in the past week for over $1.2 billion at current prices. The Tysons Corner, Virginia-based firm now holds 687,400 Bitcoin, valued at over $62.8 billion with Bitcoin at $91,415 per CoinGecko. A week ago, when U.S. markets opened, Bitcoin traded around $93,000, highlighting the recent price dip that Strategy aggressively exploited.

Bitcoin's price has tracked net institutional demand over the past year, defined by Bitwise as buying from global exchange-traded products (ETPs) and treasury companies minus new supply. This trend accelerated after Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) purchased $1.25 billion in BTC, coupled with $753 million in net inflows into US spot BTC exchange-traded funds (ETFs). On Wednesday, Bitcoin surged above $97,000 for the first time in three months, extending its post-Consumer Price Index (CPI) gain by 6.7% over the past two days.

The rally triggered $360 million in BTC short liquidations in the past 24 hours—the largest since October 10—per Coinglass data, with the biggest at $34.9 million on the HTX exchange. A 47,244 decrease in BTC holders preceded gains on three occasions over the past two months, according to Santiment. Exchange supply hit a seven-month low of 1.18 million BTC, signaling reduced selloff risk; Santiment noted dropping non-empty wallets as a bullish sign.

Bitcoin traded near $97,100, up 2% in the past 24 hours on Wednesday. By Friday, it fell toward $90,000 amid fading institutional demand and spot ETF outflows.

Silver Futures Market Surge

On Jan. 13, 2026, CME Group (Nasdaq: CME) announced a new 100-ounce silver futures contract to tap into rising retail investor demand amid geopolitical uncertainty and the energy transition. Managing Director Jin Hennig highlighted silver's appeal for diversification. COMEX silver futures rose 18.34% over five trading days, from the mid-$70 range to $91.57 by early Jan. 14, 2026, with intraday highs near $91.80, volume of 79,700 contracts, and open interest over 101,800. The contract, set for a Feb. 9, 2026 launch pending review, will be financially settled based on the global benchmark's daily price. Industry partners like Robinhood's JB Mackenzie and Plus500US CEO Isaac Cahana praised its accessibility for retail traders. CME's 2025 saw record retail activity: 301,000 average daily volume in Micro Gold futures, 48,000 in Micro Silver, and over 6 million in 1-ounce gold contracts.

XRP Price Momentum

On Jan. 13, 2026, at 8:30 p.m., XRP traded near $2.17 USD after advancing from $2.10, briefly hitting $2.18 amid bullish volatility. Technicals show a breakout above key moving averages ($2.08 50-period, $2.15 200-period), with RSI at 72 (overbought), positive MACD (0.0269 line above 0.0181 signal), and widened Bollinger Bands ($2.02 lower, $2.18 upper). Optimism stems from the Senate Banking Committee's Jan. 15 markup of the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, led by Chair Tim Scott, potentially clarifying regulations for XRP. Holding above $2.14–$2.15 supports upside; a pullback risks testing mid-$2.10s. Broader crypto strength and inflation data bolster sentiment.

North American Bitcoin mining pools experienced a consistent decline in block share in 2025, dropping to 35% of total blocks by December, according to BlocksBridge Consulting. Foundry USA, MARA Pool, and Luxor Technologies accounted for this share, down from over 40% in January. The shift is driven by surging demand for AI infrastructure, overshadowing environmental and community concerns, while China's energy build-out provides opportunities despite U.S. President Donald Trump's vision for technological dominance.

Trump, as a 2024 candidate, called for all remaining Bitcoin to be mined in the U.S., a pledge experts deem difficult or impossible. U.S. miners currently hold about 40% of global hashrate, per TheMinerMag, more than any other country. His sons, Eric and Donald Trump Jr., co-founded American Bitcoin in March, with Miami-based Hut 8 owning an 80% stake. Hut 8, formerly focused on mining, is pivoting to energy infrastructure and partnered with AI firm Anthropic in December for U.S. data centers.

In November, Eric Trump visited American Bitcoin's Texas facility, posting a video on X showcasing 35,000 machines mining about 2% of the world's Bitcoin supply. Rapid data center growth is challenging Trump's pro-crypto ambitions amid global competition.

Bitcoin has surged to a two-month high above $96,000, its highest level since mid-November 2024, reflecting renewed strength in risk assets and a shift in market sentiment after weeks of tight range-bound trading. The rally liquidated $700 million in short positions, with Bitcoin trading around $96,000-$97,000 on platforms like Bybit inverse perpetual. Host Jason Casper expresses excitement, shouting out chat participants including Investment Time, Anna Jupy Nakawatchi 420, Aliki Louisiana, Big toe Casper, and Preparing for War.

Technically, Bitcoin approaches a key high-volume node at $96,303, the highest since November 2024, where most volume has traded around $96,188. A daily close above this level could flip resistance to support, targeting $113,000-$114,000, aligned with the weekly order block and 0.618 Fibonacci retracement. A green dot on the weekly Market Cipher B signals potential 40% upside, with hidden bullish divergence and neutral Fear and Greed Index sentiment—first since October 29, 2024. However, Jason Casper warns of rejection risks, citing bearish divergences on lower timeframes like 4-hour and 1-hour, and plans short trades below $96,717 after two prior losses.

Concerns arise from a US Senate crypto market structure bill, flagged by Galaxy Digital Research as expanding Treasury surveillance powers akin to the 2001 Patriot Act. It enables designating crypto as high-risk for money laundering, freezing transactions, and sanctioning DeFi, threatening crypto's anti-surveillance ethos. Jason Casper remains cautiously bullish but eyes silver potentially hitting $100 amid broader market dynamics.

CleanSpark, a Bitcoin mining company, announced on Wednesday an agreement to purchase 447 acres in Brazoria County, Texas, to develop a 300 MW data center expandable to 600 MW, focused on artificial intelligence (AI) and high-performance computing (HPC) workloads. CEO Matt Schultz stated that accelerating demand for AI-native compute has constrained access to transmission-level power in key regions. The deal is set to close in the first quarter of 2026.

This move exemplifies Bitcoin miners diversifying amid rising mining difficulty. Firms like MARA Holdings, Core Scientific, Hut 8, Riot Platforms, and TeraWulf have repurposed infrastructure or announced AI/HPC expansions. Others pursue greener efficiencies; for instance, Canadian miner Canaan revealed last week a proof-of-concept to repurpose compute heat for local greenhouses.

Bitcoin mining costs have surged, with difficulty hitting all-time highs in 2025. Data from CoinWarz shows it peaked at 156 trillion in November and stood at 146 trillion at publication.

As 2026 begins, Bitcoin appears strong amid a political clash between the Trump administration and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, challenging the traditional link between lower interest rates and rising asset prices. The administration's pro-crypto stance and calls for rate cuts—echoed in Trump's remarks via The Kobeissi Letter, urging the Fed to lower rates when markets rise—clash with attacks on Fed independence, unsettling institutional investors like BlackRock and Fidelity. This creates a push-pull for Bitcoin [BTC], acting as both a hedge against a politically pressured U.S. dollar and a speculative risk amid institutional sell-offs.

Farzam Ehsani, CEO of VALR, describes the dynamic as paradoxical: a criminal investigation into Powell signals deep rifts, driving some to decentralized Bitcoin for reliability while scaring big players from risky assets. Ray Youssef, CEO of NoOnes, notes that expected rate cuts to 1% could boost liquidity, propelling BTC and gold as refuges amid chaos and red indices. If Powell prevails, markets may stabilize; otherwise, cheap money could spark a BTC rally.

Despite uncertainty, the crypto market rose 3.22% to $3.24 trillion in 24 hours, with the Fear and Greed Index at 52 (neutral) per CoinMarketCap. Overbought assets signal pullback risks, but the Justice Department's probe may funnel investors to safe havens like gold and Bitcoin. (By Ishika Kumari, edited by Saman Waris at AMBCrypto.)

Bitcoin's price surged to its highest level in two months, approaching $97,700, driven primarily by MicroStrategy's significant Bitcoin purchase. Supportive US inflation data further enhanced investor confidence in risk assets, leading to gains in other cryptocurrencies like Ethereum. However, the broader market saw US stocks decline amid the rally.

Despite the optimism, experts remain skeptical, labeling the uptick as a temporary rally. Economist Peter Schiff echoed this caution in a tweet, describing it as a "huge sucker’s rally" in Bitcoin. He suggested traders are mistakenly shifting profits from gold and silver mining stocks into Bitcoin ETFs and MicroStrategy ($MSTR) shares, advising savvy investors to buy mining stocks and sell Bitcoin and $MSTR instead.

U.S. lawmakers face a pivotal week for cryptocurrency regulation, with over 75 amendments filed ahead of the Senate Banking Committee's markup hearing on Thursday for a sweeping crypto market structure bill. Released just days ago, the legislation could reshape operations for Bitcoin, stablecoins, exchanges, and decentralized finance (DeFi) platforms in the United States, amid urgency and divisions in Washington. Stakeholders including crypto investors, exchanges, banks, and fintech firms are closely monitoring, as outcomes may influence U.S. crypto markets for years.

At its core, the bill clarifies oversight by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), defining when tokens like Bitcoin are securities or commodities. Supporters argue it will encourage institutional investment, reduce legal uncertainty for exchanges and custody providers, and retain crypto innovation in the U.S. Critics warn of potential innovation restrictions or regulatory power concentration. Bitcoin holders may face indirect effects via higher exchange compliance and custody costs, stablecoin liquidity underpinning trading, and institutional participation through ETFs, derivatives, and treasury adoption.

Key debates include stablecoin yield restrictions, with bipartisan amendments targeting language barring platforms from paying yield "solely" for holding stablecoins—potentially reducing demand, market depth, and DeFi support for Bitcoin trading. Ethics issues persist, with Senator Chris Van Hollen proposing anti-corruption and disclosure rules amid concerns over President Donald Trump and family crypto ties. Negotiations on SEC/CFTC partisan balance continue, as many amendments may be withdrawn or merged. Regulatory clarity is viewed as bullish for long-term Bitcoin adoption, while restrictions could curb liquidity and raise costs, with Bitcoin serving as the benchmark for U.S. market competitiveness.

In 2025, Bitcoin's market challenged the traditional four-year halving cycle, with investors questioning its reliability amid discussions on platforms like X and Reddit labeling it "bitcoin cycle dead." For over a decade, halvings reduced miner rewards, tightening supply and sparking explosive bull runs followed by corrections. However, 2025 marked the first post-halving year to close negatively, with Bitcoin ending 6% below January levels after a peak of $126,080 on October 6— an 80% gain from the April 20, 2024, halving at $64,262, far below prior cycles' 700-5,500% surges.

Previous halvings drove massive gains: November 28, 2012 (from $12 to over $1,000, +5,500%); July 9, 2016 (from $650 to $20,000, +1,250%); May 11, 2020 (from $8,181 to $69,000, +700%). The 2024 halving's atypical pre-event rally, fueled by January 11 SEC approval of spot ETFs, drew billions from institutions like BlackRock, Fidelity, Grayscale, and MicroStrategy (Michael Saylor), holding over 300,000 BTC collectively.

Experts are divided: Arthur Hayes (BitMEX) and Cathie Wood (ARK Invest) declare the old cycle dead, citing global liquidity, Fed rates, and institutional stability reducing volatility. Willy Woo, Markus Thielen (10x Research), and Rekt Capital argue it's evolving, while Jurrien Timmer (Fidelity) favors power law models and Michael Saylor predicts massive revaluation. As of January 13, 2026, inflows hit $753 million, pushing prices near $95,000, signaling potential recovery amid maturing markets.

Since late November, Bitcoin has formed bullish structures, rising 20% from market lows around $80,000. However, it remains below the short-term holders' average purchase price (orange curve) at approximately $100,000 and the 365-day moving average. Breaking above $100,000 could signal positivity, potentially driving toward new all-time highs (ATH). Conversely, stalling at this level risks a bearish phase, similar to 2022, with a possible drop below $80,000 if buyers fatigue.

At year-end 2025, Bitcoin plunged 35%, triggering extreme fear on the Crypto Fear and Greed Index (CFGI). With prices now above $95,000, sentiment is improving but lingers in the fear zone (orange). Exiting the red zone, likely via surpassing $100,000, would reassure investors. The adjusted Spent Output Profit Ratio (aSOPR) hovers around 1, indicating no trend reversal and a potential ongoing bull run since 2023, provided support holds to avert catastrophe.