In 2025, Bitcoin's market challenged the traditional four-year halving cycle, with investors questioning its reliability amid discussions on platforms like X and Reddit labeling it "bitcoin cycle dead." For over a decade, halvings reduced miner rewards, tightening supply and sparking explosive bull runs followed by corrections. However, 2025 marked the first post-halving year to close negatively, with Bitcoin ending 6% below January levels after a peak of $126,080 on October 6— an 80% gain from the April 20, 2024, halving at $64,262, far below prior cycles' 700-5,500% surges.
Previous halvings drove massive gains: November 28, 2012 (from $12 to over $1,000, +5,500%); July 9, 2016 (from $650 to $20,000, +1,250%); May 11, 2020 (from $8,181 to $69,000, +700%). The 2024 halving's atypical pre-event rally, fueled by January 11 SEC approval of spot ETFs, drew billions from institutions like BlackRock, Fidelity, Grayscale, and MicroStrategy (Michael Saylor), holding over 300,000 BTC collectively.
Experts are divided: Arthur Hayes (BitMEX) and Cathie Wood (ARK Invest) declare the old cycle dead, citing global liquidity, Fed rates, and institutional stability reducing volatility. Willy Woo, Markus Thielen (10x Research), and Rekt Capital argue it's evolving, while Jurrien Timmer (Fidelity) favors power law models and Michael Saylor predicts massive revaluation. As of January 13, 2026, inflows hit $753 million, pushing prices near $95,000, signaling potential recovery amid maturing markets.
Bitcoin is experiencing massive, unexpected ETF inflows in the US, driving a price breakout amid volatility and geopolitical tensions fueled by trade policy announcements. Recent US crypto market data highlights Bitcoin's resilience, with spot-ETFs recording net inflows exceeding $750 million in a single trading day—the highest since last fall.
On Tuesday 13th, institutional ETF clients surged: IBIT BlackRock ($126 million), FBTC Fidelity ($351.4 million), and BITB Bitwise ($159.4 million), totaling $636.8 million, as reported by BTC Road to $200k (@BTCroadto200k). Experts view this as strategic portfolio reallocation by "smart money," elevating Bitcoin's role in modern asset management and buffering against sell-offs, potentially tightening supply for sustained uptrends.
Technically, Bitcoin broke resistance at $94,000, signaling a rally toward the psychological $100,000 milestone. Holding this could target $105,000, aligning with key moving averages. Fundamentals and charts point to continued upside if supports hold.
The article also spotlights Bitcoin Hyper, a Layer-II solution integrating Solana Virtual Machine for smart contracts on Bitcoin, with its $HYPER token presale raising over $30 million and offering 38% dynamic staking rewards.
Bitcoin Market Breakout Analysis by Manuel Lippitz
After nearly two months of sideways movement, the crypto market shows renewed vitality. Bitcoin broke key resistances for the first time since early December, closing above the 94,000 USD zone on a daily basis—a level it struggled with for weeks. Analysts view this as a technical signal ushering in a new phase of the current bull market cycle. The price surged over 97,000 USD today, confirming the uptrend.
This mirrors prior patterns: Bitcoin endured three consolidations of 7-9 weeks with sideways action, support tests, and fading volatility, each followed by impulsive upward breakouts. The recent 56-day phase fits seamlessly. The broader chart reveals higher lows and highs, staying above the central uptrend line since 2023. Corrections remain buying opportunities while this structure holds.
Supporting indicators include a weekly RSI "hidden bullish divergence," signaling sustained trend strength during pullbacks. The MACD shows easing selling pressure, flattening histograms, and stabilizing momentum—often preceding major moves. Recent sell-offs cleared leveraged positions, thinning order books and removing short-term speculators. Moderate institutional buying pressure is now returning, poised to drive further gains.
Since late November, Bitcoin has formed bullish structures, rising 20% from market lows around $80,000. However, it remains below the short-term holders' average purchase price (orange curve) at approximately $100,000 and the 365-day moving average. Breaking above $100,000 could signal positivity, potentially driving toward new all-time highs (ATH). Conversely, stalling at this level risks a bearish phase, similar to 2022, with a possible drop below $80,000 if buyers fatigue.
At year-end 2025, Bitcoin plunged 35%, triggering extreme fear on the Crypto Fear and Greed Index (CFGI). With prices now above $95,000, sentiment is improving but lingers in the fear zone (orange). Exiting the red zone, likely via surpassing $100,000, would reassure investors. The adjusted Spent Output Profit Ratio (aSOPR) hovers around 1, indicating no trend reversal and a potential ongoing bull run since 2023, provided support holds to avert catastrophe.
Bitcoin halvings reduce mining rewards, creating long-term scarcity and appreciation. The 2024 halving initiated supply dynamics that compound over months and years, following historical patterns from 2012, 2016, and 2020. Each prior event preceded extended bull markets, with Bitcoin establishing new price ranges and capital rotating to altcoins for higher returns. After the 2020 halving, Bitcoin rose from ~$9K to a $69K peak, Ethereum surged from $200 to $4.9K, and altcoins achieved 1000x gains during risk-on phases.
Post-2024 Opportunities and Pepeto Alignment
The 2024 cycle favors early-stage projects with infrastructure. Pepeto ($PEPETO), in presale at $0.000000177, builds memecoin utility via PepetoSwap (commission-free trading), Pepeto Bridge (cross-chain), and Pepeto Exchange (verified listings), with 850 projects already applied. Total supply is 420T tokens: 30% presale, 30% staking (215% APY), 12.5% liquidity, 20% marketing, 7.5% development. It raised $7.17M, passed SolidProof and Coinsult audits, deploys on Ethereum mainnet, and has 100K organic community members. As regulations tighten, such audited platforms gain from post-halving rotations, mirroring DeFi booms in 2020-2021.
Bitcoin experienced a strong breakout on Wednesday, driven by massive ETF inflows, with net inflows reaching approximately 750 million USD on Tuesday—the largest since October's liquidations of leveraged positions. This surge reflects institutional investors restructuring portfolios toward BTC amid year-end shifts, boosting overall investor interest after a recent weak phase.
The BTC/USD price surpassed the key 94,000 USD mark on Wednesday, signaling a buy opportunity and upward momentum. Analysts anticipate a potential test of 100,000 USD soon, which could propel the price to 105,000 USD and the 200-day moving average at 106,000 USD. Currently trading around 90,000 USD after slight 24-hour losses, Bitcoin remains in a broader uptrend. Short-term traders may find buying chances, while long-term investors are advised to accumulate based on strong fundamentals, avoiding FOMO-driven decisions.
As the first and largest cryptocurrency, often called "digital gold," Bitcoin serves as a scarce digital store of value. Short-term forecasts predict volatility in a 90,000–95,000 USD range, with long-term targets exceeding 100,000 USD. Note: sharedeals.de employees and the author hold Bitcoin positions, creating a conflict of interest.
Bitcoin Short Liquidation Surge: Dodge Fake Bulls in Price Shifts
12h
EN
www.kitco.com
Bitcoin Meteo
Bitcoin surged above the TBO resistance at $94,000 on renewed buying pressure, fueled by roughly $600 million in short liquidations over the past 24 hours. Daily RSI returned to overbought territory—below its prior peak—while volume stayed above its moving average and OBV indicated steady accumulation. However, the structure echoes bull-trap scenarios from 2018 and 2022, with analysts anticipating a retest of the weekly TBO Fast line around $98,000–$100,000 before any sustainable breakout.
Bitcoin dominance (BTC.D) closed marginally red, failing to reclaim previous support now acting as resistance, suggesting potential further decline that could boost altcoin strength. Ethereum outperformed Bitcoin with a nearly 2× advance, clearing its TBO resistance and targeting $3,435, while the ETH/BTC pair pierced overhead resistance; a sustained move above 0.03615 BTC might lead a broader altcoin rally. Stablecoin dominance fell 4.14%, signaling TBO Open Short and potential altcoin inflows, though daily RSI shows a higher low, urging caution.
Macro influences include mixed US equity technicals, with the S&P 500 above its daily TBO Cloud and the Dow bullish despite closing under 50,000. Commodities like gold show uptrends with RSI bearish divergences, while oil nears $61 amid Middle East tensions. Altcoin highlights feature XRP, BNB (targeting $992.63), SOL, and others with mixed TBO signals.
The provided content does not appear to be an article about Bitcoin; instead, it is a promotional message from Grist, a nonprofit environmental journalism organization. It urges readers to disable ad-blockers to support their work, explains how to do so, and promotes sponsorship opportunities with phrases like "Grist thanks its sponsors. Become one." No key points on the Bitcoin market, dates, entities, or names related to cryptocurrency are present in the text. If you can provide the actual article content, I'd be happy to summarize it concisely within 200 words.
Banking Boss Scott: Axe Trump Ethics from Crypto Push
12h
EN
www.coindesk.com
Bitcoin Meteo
Senate Crypto Bill Progress and Challenges
Senate Banking Committee Chairman Tim Scott expressed optimism for a successful first Senate vote on the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, a key crypto market structure bill, during an exclusive CoinDesk interview on Wednesday. The committee was set to markup the bill on Thursday, weighing at least 75 amendments from both parties. However, ethics debates—such as banning senior officials like President Donald Trump from crypto ties—fall outside the committee's jurisdiction and will be handled separately by the Senate Ethics Committee, led by efforts from Senators Cynthia Lummis and Ruben Gallego. Scott noted this provision, a Democratic "red line," would join a broader package later.
Ongoing negotiations on stablecoin rewards remain unresolved, with bipartisan concerns over the draft's restrictions resembling savings accounts. The bill limits rewards to active use and transactions to address fears of threatening bank deposits, but new language is under review by stakeholders. Scott aims for passage before year's end, crediting intense, passionate talks since last year.
KuCoin's 2025 Market Surge
KuCoin achieved a record centralized exchange (CEX) market share in 2025, with $1.25 trillion in trading volume—averaging $114 billion monthly—outpacing the broader crypto market's slowdown. Spot and derivatives volumes each topped $500 billion, driven mainly by altcoins beyond BTC and ETH, indicating strong user engagement.
Markup Cancellation
The Senate Banking Committee canceled Thursday's markup due to unfinished business, with Scott stating stakeholders continue working on the bill as of December 22, 2025.
Bitcoin's price surged to an eight-week high of $97,700 this morning, breaking a multi-week trading range and climbing above key psychological levels. After trading sideways near the low-$90,000 for two months, it gained traction over the weekend, reaching above $97,000—its best level in over two months—through January 14. This rally triggered $700 million in short liquidations, per Bitcoin Magazine Data, and propelled BTC through the $94,000–$96,000 resistance zone, interpreted as a technical breakout. Polymarket estimates a 73% chance of Bitcoin hitting $100,000 in January. At writing, BTC traded near $97,200, up over 4% in 24 hours.
Macro drivers include the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report on January 13, showing moderating inflation that eased fears of aggressive monetary tightening and boosted risk-on sentiment for assets like Bitcoin. Geopolitical tensions, such as intensified protests in Iran amid economic collapse, internet blackouts, and fast-track trials, have driven safe-haven demand despite broader risk-off mood. Additionally, the Department of Justice launched a criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell over his June 2025 testimony on a $2.5 billion Fed building renovation, seen as politically motivated by the Trump administration, heightening volatility and favoring Bitcoin and gold.
Institutional interest resurfaced with Spot Bitcoin ETFs recording the largest net inflows since late 2025. Strategy Inc., a major corporate holder, announced a $1.3 billion BTC acquisition ahead of the surge. Resistance looms at $97,000–$100,000, with the Fear & Greed Index shifting toward optimism, testing bulls' ability to sustain gains into 2026.
Bitcoin Surges Past 95K on ETFs' Record Influx Since Oct
12h
EN
sg.finance.yahoo.com
Bitcoin Meteo
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded their largest daily inflows in three months, totaling $753.7 million on Tuesday. This surge raises questions about whether investors are rotating back into risk assets after year-end portfolio rebalancing.
The development was highlighted in "CoinDesk Daily," hosted by CoinDesk's Jennifer Sanasie.
Bitcoin surged 4.4% on Wednesday, reaching above $97,500—a level not seen since November—amid expectations from analysts that it could climb even higher. The spike followed two months of flat trading after a major October sell-off, with the overall crypto market down about $1 trillion from its October all-time high. Other cryptocurrencies also rose: Ethereum gained 6% to $3,371, and XRP increased 2.7% to $2.16.
BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes predicted in December that Bitcoin will surpass $200,000 by March, driven by the Federal Reserve's anticipated purchase of $40 billion in government debt, which he views as "thinly disguised" money printing. In January, Hayes reiterated this, linking it to the Trump Administration's capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, granting U.S. access to Venezuelan oil to curb inflation while expanding liquidity. "As the amount of dollars expands, the price of Bitcoin and certain cryptos will skyrocket," he wrote.
Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan told DL News this week that Bitcoin's price will "go substantially higher" if three conditions are met: avoiding an October-like flash crash, the U.S. passing the Clarity Act for crypto regulatory clarity, and strong broader stock market performance. He cautioned that whales could tank the market by selling holdings at low prices. Eric Johansson is DL News’ managing editor.
AI disrupts business margins, shortens lifespans, and consumes innovation rapidly, prompting capital to seek durable assets that resist decay—Bitcoin fits this role. Its price doesn't rise linearly but reprices in sharp, violent steps. Once investors recognize no viable alternatives, capital floods in simultaneously, triggering NGU (Number Go Up) events rather than steady growth.
Bitcoin's core strength lies in time. Drawing from meditation lessons, the speaker advises against emotional fixation on short-term volatility, like Bitcoin hovering between $105,000 and $95,000. As a macro strategist, they emphasize maintaining perspective on the long-term trajectory, urging focus beyond momentary fluctuations: "I know one thing."
On January 14, 2026, Bitcoin surged to a high of $96,000, potentially marking the long-awaited "God Candle" as buyers pushed past resistances toward six figures. This rally, fueled by institutional accumulation, low U.S. CPI data, and geopolitical uncertainties, aligns with its stock-to-flow theory as digital gold. However, supporters argue that relying solely on store-of-value demand is insufficient for sustained highs.
Lark Davis, founder of Inner Circle, sparked discussion on X by sharing an ascending channel chart showing Bitcoin testing $90,000 support. Querying Grok, he received a mid-2026 target of $130,000, with end-2026 projections of $140,000–$150,000. Pressed for optimism, Grok cited regulatory wins like the Clarity Act and tokenization boom, forecasting $200,000–$225,000 by end-2026 per analysts from Goldman Sachs, Yang, and Bernstein ($150,000 target). Volatility risks include drops to $10,000 in downturns.
Bitcoin Hyper (HYPER), the fastest-developing Layer 2 ecosystem, addresses this by enhancing Bitcoin's utility as a medium of exchange. Anchoring BTC in high-velocity transactions via Solana Virtual Machine (SVM) and a trust-minimized Canonical Bridge, it enables sub-second finality and near-zero fees. HYPER token, native to the ecosystem, has seen $30.5 million in total buys, diversifying demand for long-term six-figure stability.
MicroStrategy (MSTR) stock surged over 10% on Wednesday morning, briefly exceeding $189 per share, fueled by renewed Bitcoin strength nearing $97,000 and ongoing corporate BTC acquisitions. As the public company with the largest Bitcoin holdings, MicroStrategy serves as a high-beta proxy for BTC, amplifying price movements. This rally followed volatility earlier in the month and built on momentum from a late-last-week disclosure of adding over 13,000 BTC, bringing total holdings to approximately 687,000 Bitcoin. The firm accumulates BTC using operating cash flow, equity issuance, and capital markets, with Executive Chairman Michael Saylor positioning it as a superior store of value and treasury reserve asset.
Market sentiment improved amid an insider purchase by a company director—the first open-market buy in years—contrasting prior scheduled sales. Index provider MSCI's decision earlier this month to retain Bitcoin-focused treasury firms in benchmarks eased fears of passive fund sell-offs, reducing downside risks for MSTR amid its growing market cap from Bitcoin's 2024 and 2025 rallies. However, the model remains volatile, with past unrealized losses from accounting mark-downs during BTC dips creating earnings swings. Supporters view MSTR as a key institutional on-ramp to Bitcoin exposure, despite leverage and dilution concerns.
Bitcoin surpassed $97,000 on Wednesday during US trading hours, marking a two-week high and a nearly 7% weekly gain. This rally persisted despite higher-than-expected US producer prices in November, with the PPI rising 3.0% (versus 2.7% forecast) and core PPI at 3.0%, the highest since July 2025. The increase stemmed from a 0.9% jump in final consumer goods prices, while services remained flat. These figures bolster expectations that the Federal Reserve will pause rate cuts at its late-January meeting, with markets already pricing in steady rates.
Adding to market unease, a criminal investigation against Fed Chair Jerome Powell, initiated by President Donald Trump and announced Friday, has raised concerns over central bank independence, pressuring traditional stocks. Bitcoin, however, is increasingly viewed as a hedge against geopolitical and policy risks, contrasting its dip below $90,000 from its all-time high at the end of 2025 when gold hit records.
This week is pivotal for the US crypto sector, the largest market for crypto assets, as the Senate debates the CLARITY Act to regulate cryptocurrencies and firms, clarifying SEC and CFTC jurisdictions and classifying assets as securities or commodities.
The Bitcoin surge lifted stocks of treasury companies: Strategy rose over 8%, KindlyMD gained 10%, Japan's Metaplanet climbed 15% in Tokyo trading, and Strive increased 7% after Semler Scientific shareholders approved the acquisition. In contrast, tech weakened, with Invesco QQQ Trust (tracking Nasdaq 100) down over 1%. Gold traded near $4,600 per ounce and silver above $91, with analysts eyeing $5,000 for gold and $100 for silver. Year-to-date, Bitcoin is up 10% while QQQ remains flat, amid broader worries over US domestic policies, international entanglements, trade tariffs, and central bank autonomy.
Bitcoin Surges $97,200 as High Court Postpones Trump Trade Decision
13h
EN
coinpaper.com
Bitcoin Meteo
The U.S. Supreme Court delayed its ruling on the challenge to President Donald Trump’s sweeping global tariffs, invoking the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) of 1977, which triggered a rally in the crypto market. Bitcoin (BTC), the market leader, surged above $97,200 following the announcement on Wednesday. Lower courts had ruled that Trump exceeded his authority by using emergency powers for long-term trade policy, and during Nov. 5 oral arguments, justices from both conservative and liberal wings expressed skepticism, referencing the Major Questions Doctrine and the need for congressional approval.
The Court's silence intensified speculation, avoiding an immediate ruling that could invalidate the tariffs and force refunds of hundreds of billions in collections, potentially disrupting supply chains and corporate finances. Trump had called such unwinding a “complete mess.”
In financial markets, the delay brought relief, easing fears of volatility from tariff invalidation, corporate tax adjustments, or trade-linked inflation. Bitcoin's rally lifted the broader crypto market, with all top 10 digital assets by market cap jumping in the hour after the news. Prediction markets, which had priced in a high chance of the Court striking down Trump’s authority, saw temporary easing of uncertainty.
Bitcoin extended gains during U.S. market hours, briefly surpassing $97,000, with BTC trading at $95,148.00. Related equities rose: MicroStrategy (MSTR), the largest bitcoin treasury company, added over 8%; KindlyMD (NAKA) advanced 10%; Metaplanet, Asia's largest bitcoin firm, gained 15% in Tokyo; and Strive (ASST) rose 7% following Semler Scientific (SMLR) shareholders' approval of an acquisition.
The rally stems from a criminal investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell, launched Friday amid U.S. President Donald Trump's escalating dispute, driving investors to safe havens like bitcoin, gold (near $4,600/oz, eyeing $5,000), and silver (above $91/oz, targeting $100). Tech stocks lagged, with Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) down over 1% daily and flat year-to-date, while bitcoin is up ~10%. Analysts David Morrison (Trade Nation) and Lukman Otunuga (FXTM) cite concerns over Fed independence, geopolitics, and policy uncertainty fueling volatility and haven demand, positioning bitcoin for $100,000.
Separately, KuCoin hit a record $1.25 trillion in 2025 trading volume (~$114B/month), capturing peak centralized exchange share, split evenly between spot/derivatives and dominated by altcoins. A Polymarket bettor wagered $40,000 on a U.S. strike on Iran by January 14, against low odds, with consensus at 65% by month-end and 74% by June 30.
Matt Hougan, CIO at Bitwise, predicts Bitcoin will reach new all-time highs in 2026 if three catalysts align: avoiding another October 10-style flash crash, passage of the Clarity Act, and stable equity markets. He rates the first as a green light, noting the October 10 event that erased $1.4 trillion from crypto markets due to overleveraged positions has resolved, allowing momentum to rebuild.
The Clarity Act, up for a Senate Banking Committee vote on Thursday, earns a yellow light. It would assign SEC oversight to "ancillary assets" reliant on issuers and CFTC regulation to digital commodities like Bitcoin. The bill bans stablecoin passive yields, protects non-custodial software creators from prosecution (addressing cases like Tornado Cash co-founder Roman Storm's conviction), but grants Treasury broad surveillance powers, including freezing transactions for 30 days without court orders. Galaxy's Alex Thorn calls it the largest government financial surveillance expansion since the 2001 USA Patriot Act.
Equity markets also get a yellow light, as Bitcoin increasingly correlates with risk assets, needing a "slightly positive uptrending channel" for gains. Bitcoin surged 5% this week to about $96,000, crossing $95,000 on Wednesday after Strategy bought $1.3 billion. However, Hougan warns of whale selling pressure at $100,000, potentially capping upside through most of 2026.
Bitcoin is lagging behind gold, which hit new all-time highs on Monday, amid markets reacting to U.S. government actions against Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Gold and silver prices continue rising, while Bitcoin (BTC) struggles, falling below 20 ounces of gold at the start of 2026 and now oscillating near two-year lows, per TradingView.
Investment specialist Karel Mercx of Dutch consultancy Beleggers Belangen argues Bitcoin has failed as an anti-inflation tool, or "debasement trade." In a Monday X post, he stated: "The verdict is in: the debasement trade is gold and silver, not Bitcoin." BTC remains 20% below its peak, as investors favor real hard money over "digital gold," calling the narrative "compromised" and "fallacious."
Crypto trader Michaël van de Poppe senses urgency for a market recovery, while analyst Benjamin Cowen highlights the gold vs. S&P 500 (SPX) chart as pivotal: "If SPX falls against gold, the last decade's context changes completely," based on monthly data.
In September 2025, Mercx declared Bitcoin's four-year price cycle "dead," noting weakening cycles in BTC priced in gold, marking the first quadrennial loss.
