### Bitcoin Market Downturn Analysis

The Bitcoin market is experiencing a decline due to a "risk-off environment" driven by macroeconomics, including delayed US interest rate cuts and tightening financial conditions, reducing liquidity. Bitcoin, viewed as a high-beta asset, suffers alongside volatile investments. Additional pressures include concerns over the AI bubble in tech, with massive CapEx by giants diverting capital and correlating with crypto's woes. Technically, a "Death Cross" has appeared on Bitcoin's chart, signaling potential further sales. Analysts see this as a short-term correction in crypto's volatile nature, urging prudence over panic. The convergence of macroeconomic fears, AI doubts, and liquidations amplifies the drop, with "Steady Lads" promoting resilient portfolio strategies via a $100,000 crypto fund managed by trader Cara.

### Key Crypto News Highlights

US banking regulator allows banks to hold crypto for blockchain fees (Bloomberg). Revolut adopts Polygon for crypto services, processing $690M. MicroStrategy's stock falls over 30% to ~$200 despite Bitcoin gains, holding >600,000 BTC. Bitfury announces $1B investment in ethical tech and AI (Fortune). Brazil plans to tax crypto for international payments. Other updates: El Salvador buys 1,000+ BTC for $100M; whales accumulate during dip; Cathie Wood (ARK) invests $10M in Bullish; SEC deprioritizes crypto for 2026; potential Christmas Bitcoin rally. Headlines dated 18/11/2025 and 17/11/2025 cover Solana ETFs by Fidelity and Canary Capital, Binance curbing illicit activity, and Cloudflare outage impacting Coinbase, Kraken, Aave.

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Bitcoin's price dipped below the crucial $90,000 support on Tuesday, down nearly 30% from its all-time high of $126,296, amid a four-week downtrend signaling fears of a 2025 bear market. The cryptocurrency has erased all year-to-date gains, currently down 0.50% YTD, with $700 million in liquidations over the last 24 hours. Retail investor conviction has collapsed, institutional flows stalled, and Bitcoin ETF products saw continuous outflows. Experts attribute the sell-off to macro-driven pressures and large holder liquidations, though long-term holders view BTC as a hedge against fiat debasement and inflation.

Despite the turmoil, MicroStrategy, led by Michael Saylor, accumulated 8,178 BTC at an average $102,171 (total $835 million) from November 10 to 16, reinforcing its long-term strategy. Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley, in a November 14, 2025 tweet, noted a new market structure post-Bitcoin ETFs and the new administration, suggesting a six-month bear market is nearly over with stronger dynamics ahead. BTC has fallen 14.5% in the past seven days—its third four-week decline—hovering near $90,000, a former 2025 support level. Reversal potential exists, with inflows possibly driving it to $100,000–$120,000, hinging on global conditions.

Amid bearish predictions, Bitcoin Hyper raised over $27.8 million in presale, selling 615 million HYPER tokens at $0.013295. This layer-2 solution uses Solana’s Virtual Machine for faster, low-cost Bitcoin transactions, verified by Coinsult and Spywolf, offering up to 41% p.a. staking rewards and hailed as 2025's best presale.

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Bitcoin (BTC) fell below $90,000 for the first time since April, plunging 5% on October 17 (local time) to an intraday low of $89,253 on the Binance Tether (USDT) market—about 30% below last month's record high of $126,200. The decline persists amid a downward skew in the options market, with Deribit data showing surged demand for protective put options at $85,000 and $80,000 levels, accumulating over $740 million in bearish bets for end-of-month contracts. Weakening spot demand has added pressure, as noted by Chris Newhouse of Ergonia, who highlighted that recent accumulators are in loss territory, reducing conviction-based buys. Digital-asset treasury (DAT) firms face strain; Strategy recently added $835 million in BTC but holds amid unease. Technically, BTC dropped below the 50-week moving average, with a weekly close under $100,000 for the first time since May, per QCP Capital, which eyes $88,000 and $74,500 as key supports.

Analysts view this as a typical short-term correction. Bernstein called it moderate, driven by preemptive profit-taking around the four-year cycle peak, with 340,000 BTC sold by long-term holders absorbed by spot ETFs and corporates. They dismissed Strategy sell-off rumors, citing its $61 billion holdings versus $8 billion liabilities. Structural bullish factors persist, including U.S. pro-digital-asset policies, potential legislation this year or early next, and rate cuts. Coveyci Letter and BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes predict rebounds, possibly to $200,000–$250,000 by year-end if liquidity returns via Fed/Treasury actions.

Market focus is on FOMC minutes releasing October 20 (local time) and delayed September jobs data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics that day. Fed views diverge: Governor Christopher Waller supports a 0.25% cut next month, while Vice Chair Philip Jefferson urges caution to avoid undershooting inflation targets. Stronger-than-expected jobs could dampen rate-cut hopes, pressuring crypto further.

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Bitcoin's rapid pullback has pushed the average US spot Bitcoin ETF investor into the red for the first time since launch. The flow-weighted cost basis across all US Bitcoin (BTC) ETFs is near $89,600, a level Bitcoin fell below on Tuesday, leaving the cohort underwater, Glassnode analyst Sean Rose told Bloomberg on Tuesday. Early buyers who entered between $40,000 and $70,000 remain in profit. Vincent Liu, chief investment officer at Kronos Research, told Cointelegraph that most ETF holders are long-term allocators, so being underwater won't trigger quick exits. Liu emphasized liquidity and macro factors as key drivers, with easing signals potentially lifting sentiment.

On Monday, US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $254.6 million in combined outflows, per Farside Investors, marking the fifth straight day: Nov. 12 ($278.1 million), Nov. 13 ($866.7 million, second-worst session), and Nov. 14 ($492.1 million). BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) lost $145.6 million, Fidelity’s Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) $12 million, ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB) $29.7 million, and Bitwise Bitcoin ETF (BITB) $9.5 million. Spot Ether (ETH) ETFs recorded $182.7 million in outflows, with BlackRock’s iShares Ethereum Trust ETF (ETHA) losing $193 million. Liu noted a market shift could occur with disinflation, softening labor data, and central bank easing signals.

Meanwhile, Solana (SOL) ETFs bucked the trend, logging inflows on Monday: Bitwise Solana Staking ETF (BSOL) $7.3 million and Grayscale Solana Trust ETF (GSOL) $0.9 million. The funds have seen daily inflows since late October, with cumulative net inflows for BSOL, VSOL, and GSOL reaching about $390 million.

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